☆ Deficits, taxes, contentions—oh my!: CA taxpayer experts on what to look out for in 2025
“Lions and tigers and bears! Oh my!” Image from The Wizard of Oz (1939).
CA’n voters made it clear to pols this past November: if you're going to spend our money, first prove you know how to do it. But gov’t doesn’t always follow the logical yellow brick road, as Opp Now contributors analyze below. In this exclusive, hear from CA taxpayer advocates Marc Joffe, Lance Christensen, and Pat Waite—on what they’re watching, expecting, and hoping for in ‘25 (from BART, new taxes, energy costs, and more).
Marc Joffe, Contra Costa Taxpayers Association president: 2025 is the year that legislators and MTC board members will have to agree on the scope of a new transit tax to put in front of voters next year. Having stumbled badly on RM4 and the bridge toll hike, and facing disagreements across Bay Area counties on new transit taxes, the process is likely to be painful and complicated.
Lance Christensen, California Policy Partners president: If 2025 wasn't going to be exciting enough nationally, Gov. Gavin Newsom and the state legislature are determined to ignore November's general election results and double down on progressive policies that have devastated California for the last several decades.
The voters provided a strong referendum on public safety, approving Proposition 36 with record numbers despite Newsom and legislative leaderships' vain attempt to derail those reforms last year.
Housing costs cannot be addressed if the Attorney General continues to sue cities who refuse to comply with arbitrary building mandates as myriad regulatory hurdles continue to stand in the way of development. Energy costs will continue to soar as Democrats increase the cost of producing gasoline and electricity. Californians will continue to be taxed at exorbitant rates, even as other states are looking to reduce the appetite of government and costs to taxpayers. And until policymakers stop battling parents' interests in directing the education of their children, academic outcomes will continue to slide, producing more illiterate and innumerate graduates.
Rather than fight with the federal government, the governor and legislature would do well to stop digging graves for the California economy and step aside for the citizens to control their destiny and bring the glimmer back to the Golden State.
Pat Waite, Citizens for Fiscal Responsibility president: Expect a rough 2025 for BART, which was once the envy of most mass transit systems in the U.S. In the pre-COVID world, 70% of BART’s operating expenses were covered by fares, versus a nationwide average of around 14% (VTA’s farebox recovery was a meager 9%).
The pandemic shutdown decimated mass transit ridership, including at BART, and it has been slow to recover. BART’s level is around 40% of pre-pandemic levels, and BART had already been experiencing a slow annual decline since ridership peaked in 2016. About $2 billion of COVID relief has kept BART afloat, but those funds are virtually exhausted. Fares increased 5.5% on January 1st, but that is nowhere near enough to bridge the expected nearly $400 million annual shortfall beginning in 2026. A multi-county tax is being considered to fill the gap, but voters seem reticent about tax increases (other than those for local schools).
BART must adjust to this new reality by realigning services and costs considering post-COVID work habits. It won’t be easy, or pretty, but is absolutely necessary.
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