☆ Opinion: New BART schedule a positive stride, but attached to additional expenses/challenges
Tom Rubin, former SoCal Rapid Transit District CFO, is an analyst–consultant with over 40 years in the transit industry. Here, Rubin applauds BART's move to attract riders by running frequenter (and higher-policed) evening trains, while analyzing how "breaking" trains midday is costly and could create overcrowding. An Opp Now exclusive.
The short comment is that BART is making a logical move to try to increase ridership.
The general rule of thumb is that most transit riders will accept a 15-minute headway. This means, on average, assuming random arrival time, they will have to wait an average of 7.5 minutes before their train comes. A lot of experience shows that this is short enough that most people will not bother to check a schedule before heading out to catch their transit ride—particularly if they are “inside,” such as in BART subway stations.
The new BART operating plan is one of more-or-less equal percentage improvement in headway—the headway will be longer in the evening than during the peak but, still, shorter than it was. What BART is doing is more or less operating the same number of cars per day per line per direction. This means that many of BART’s costs will be more or less constant—the propulsion power to run the trains, the salary/benefits for the station attendants, the maintenance costs for the trains and the track.
However, because each train must have an operator, the operation wage/benefits costs do go up. Because of all the screwiness in trying to schedule transit work, the cost will likely not go up directly proportionally to the increase in the number of transit, but it will go up.
Also, if BART intends to have police officers on trains, there is another cost increase—but, again, not directly proportional. If the police officers—which generally means a two-person team—are going to board the first car and then walk through the train to the last car, then get off at the next station and board the next train coming through (because the trains will be shorter), the cost is not proportional.
Keep in mind that BART has had a problem staffing up all the operators—and police officers—during the last several years, which may be a reason why BART has not been able to increase the number of trains until now. It makes sense why they're prioritizing police staffing now. BART is trying hard to increase security, and perception of security—which are obviously related, but not the same thing— while cutting down on fare evasion. These two go together because BART has found that about 80% of the people that are arrested have no proof of paying the fare; so if they can reduce the number of fare evaders riding, they also reduce the number of security issues (again, not proportionally, but any reduction is important). And eventually, this should let more people feel it is safer to ride BART. However, it will take a long time before BART riders feel as secure as they were before, and some people will never use BART again.
If more people are riding, then fare revenue goes up. If the fares go up more than the just-identified costs go up, then that would be a net gain. BART has to come up with a way to increase ridership because its long-term dip is hitting it quite a bit.
Unfortunately, part of BART’s problem is that it is difficult and expensive to “break” a train midday. BART would prefer, on the more highly utilized lines, to run 10-car trains from the first pull-out in the morning until the last pull-in in the evenings. It would seem to make sense to start, at 5:00 a.m. on a weekday, with six-car trains, then up those to 10-car trains during the peak, then go back to six cars midday, etc. However, to do that, each train would have to be brought into an operating yard, the train separated, part of it parked, and the other part sent back on the line (and it is even harder to do a “break” and a “re-make” than my brief description just said).
About the shorter trains, BART is getting some feedback that people are upset that they're more crowded and that many people are having trouble finding seats. I’ve seen some pictures and data; at the peak of the peak, there are most definitely times when the cars appear more crowded.
Follow Opportunity Now on Twitter @svopportunity
Opp Now enthusiastically welcomes smart, thoughtful, fair-minded, well-written comments from our readers. But be advised: we have zero interest in posting rants, ad hominems, poorly-argued screeds, transparently partisan yack, or the hateful name-calling often seen on other local websites. So if you've got a great idea that will add to the conversation, please send it in. If you're trolling or shilling for a candidate or initiative, forget it.