Why high density has only amplified SJ's housing market woes
Wassily Kandinsky, Houses at Murnau
The Marin Post explains that in cities across the U.S., anti-sprawl policies have made homebuying more, not less, expensive. The Post then cites transportation expert and Opp Now commentor Randal O’Toole’s policy brief, which shows why SJ should consider different housing market fixes (such as ditching urban-growth boundaries).
High-density-advocates claim that developers can overcome high land costs by building higher densities. However, the cost of high-density construction is significantly greater, per square foot, than low-density construction....
California Developer Nicholas Arenson gave a presentation entitled; “The Deal Approach" to two regional planning bodies (the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) and the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG)). He testified that buildings that are three stories tall or taller require more steel, concrete, and elevators, making construction cost per square foot much higher than one- or two-story single-family homes.
More specifically, Arenson calculated that building three stories costs 30 to 50 percent more, per square foot, than two stories; four to seven stories costs 100 to 300 percent more; and eight or more stories costs 450 to 650 percent more.
In his policy brief entitled; “Make Housing Affordable by Ending the New Feudalism”, Randal O'Toole states:
“Density Is Not the Solution. There is no evidence that single-family zoning makes housing more expensive or that abolishing it will make it more affordable. By 1960, almost every city in America except Houston had approved zoning codes that put large portions of their cities in single-family zoning. Yet housing remained very affordable nationwide.”
“Contrary to those who say that density is the solution to affordability problems, California urban areas have become less affordable even as their densities increased. Between 1970 and 2018, the population density of the Los Angeles urban area grew by 37 percent while its price-to-income ratio grew from 2.2 to 8.0. The density of the San Francisco-Oakland urban area grew by 55 percent while its price-to-income ratio grew from 2.3 to 7.7. The density of the San Jose urban area grew by 71 percent while its price-to-income ratio grew from 2.2 to 7.8.”
“Comparing densities and affordability in the nation’s 60 largest urban areas reveals a strong negative correlation between the two. Of these urban areas, none whose price-per-income ratio is under three has a density greater than 3,600 people per square mile. No urban area whose density is greater than 4,100 people square mile has a price-per-income ratio less than 4, and most are more than 6. The correlation coefficient between density and price-to-income ratios is 0.82, which is particularly strong.”
Abolishing single-family zoning and up-zoning in general won’t make housing more affordable because it doesn’t solve the problems of high land prices and higher construction costs of multi-story buildings.
This article originally appeared in the Marin Post. Read the whole thing here.
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