Upcoming CA population losses might wreak havoc on schools, businesses, pensions
SJ suffers disproportionately from Californian outmigration, having lost 0.5% of residents last year—many to places more affordable and which have sufficient housing supply. The Globe analyzes how CA'n population losses (only expected to escalate in coming decades) could compromise local jurisdictions' education, pensions, health care, and transit systems.
In 1967, California knocked New York from its perch and became the largest – by population – state in America.
In 2049, Texas may very well do the same to California.
Why? Because new state Department of Finance population forecast numbers show California as having roughly the same number – about 12,000 less actually – of people in it in 2060 as it does right now – in 2023.
The economic, political, and cultural impacts of this new projection – in 2007 the department projected a population of 60 million in 2060 – are massive....
The forecasts will have ripple effects throughout the state, as the numbers are used by government agencies and private industry to make future plans.
Cities that assumed for a population increase of “X” will have to re-visit their general plans, school districts will have to rejigger their building (or not building, so school bonds should have an appropriately very difficult time passing) plans, businesses will take a third or fourth look at whether to expand in the state, and public pension and health care funds will be even more stressed with comparably fewer-than-expected earners supporting retirees.
And, of course, the on-time, on-budget high speed rail project will have to tweak its ridership projections and that could eat into its projected massive profits.
Just kidding on that last one – couldn’t resist. Seriously, though, the ludicrous ridership projections are based on higher population estimates.
This article originally appeared in the California Globe. Read the whole thing here.
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