State’s HSR affordability argument falls flat after latest budget spike
BuildHSR.com is the official Californian website that defends our decades-long, politically-motivated, taxpayer-funded contretemps known as the CA High Speed Rail project. See previous criticism from TRANSDEF, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, and the SAFE Coalition. Opp Now refutes the State’s flimsy cost-effectiveness argument regarding comparable transit projects on a BuildHSR page most unfortunately titled “Get the facts.”
BuildHSR.com, under the State of California, responds to the idea that a statewide high-speed rail is a money-waster, as posited by myriad dissenters such as TRANSDEF (the Transportation Solutions Defense and Education Fund).
The State argues that “Providing the same people-carrying capacity as high-speed rail from San Francisco to Los Angeles would require 4,200 new highway lane miles, 91 additional airport gates and two new airport runways costing between $122B to $199B, not including operations and maintenance costs; more expensive than the $63B to $98B for HSR.” Read the whole thing here.
However, this is questionable given how much the HSR project’s costs have increased from this cited total of $63-98 billion. The project has overall remained the same, the rail’s maximum capacity has remained the same, but the burden on taxpayers has snowballed. Based on its projected total, this “Get the facts” FAQ page was likely written around October 2021—which is relatively recent but, since 2022’s big budgetary blow-up, is uncomfortably outdated. The current price tag sits at $113 billion. There’s a big discrepancy from $63-98 billion.
And if history is to repeat itself, this total will continue to rise before the project is at last completed. Historically, the budget tacks on tens of billions of dollars per decade: Early totals stayed within the 30 and 40 billions, 2010s totals within the 60 and 70 billions, and now in the 2020s, we’ve skipped straight to the 110 billions. Expect more checks to be signed.
Even CA HSR Authority CEO Brian Kelly acknowledged that $120 billion might be a more realistic estimate for the project, and he’s not known to lowball costs.
Let’s compare the supposedly outrageous $122 billion of other (arguably more beneficial) transit options to $120+ billion of CA’s HSR. A $2 billion difference. Thus, at this point, California’s high-speed rail construction is only slightly less expensive than similar transit expansion solutions. This is notwithstanding inevitable budget spikes coming up in the “few”—or more?—years remaining. So even if the HSR project was a competitive and valuable option at $98 billion, it likely isn’t now. This tosses the State’s affordability claim out the window.
Furthermore, what’s the common ground between this HSR project and the hypothetical one of creating new highway lanes and airport gates/runways? Both projects are currently not justifiable as needed (as explained by Cindy Bloom of the SAFE Coalition) and, thus, waste valuable taxpayer funds. Overall, the comparison between the two transit construction options by BuildHSR is silly and, now, factually dubious.
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This article is part of an exclusive Opp Now series.
First, TRANSDEF president David Schonbrunn rebuts the HSR Authority CEO’s “bargain” rhetoric surrounding California’s high-speed rail ambitions.
In the second article, environmental group SAFE Coalition’s Kelly Decker and Cindy Bloom respond to Brian Kelly’s claims of financial affordability.
Then, the third article spotlights Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association president Jon Coupal’s take on Brian Kelly’s argument.
For the final installment, the Opp Now team analyzes outdated logic in the State’s informational page on the HSR project.
Image by Jon Curnow