Regional and statewide homeless counts not reliable, say experts
Depicted: Census statistical machine c. 1940
Homelessness increased again in California this year. But experts are raising questions about the data. CalMatters reports.
New data shows nearly 186,000 people now live on the streets and in homeless shelters in California, proving the crisis continues to grow despite increasing state and local efforts to stem the tide.
The count is up slightly from last year’s tally of about 181,000, and up 8% from 2022 (the last year most California counties counted people living in encampments).
But experts warn these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. The county that reported the biggest increase in homelessness (San Joaquin) and the one that reported the biggest decrease (Sacramento) both changed the way they counted this year – calling into question how accurately this count can be compared to prior years. And in every county, experts warn the tally is likely an undercount, as volunteers are sure to miss people sleeping tucked away out of sight.
“Ever since the (point-in-time count) became a mandate we’ve been railing against it,” said Christy Saxton, director of health, housing and homeless services for Contra Costa County. “Because it’s incredibly flawed. Everyone has a different methodology.”
Those challenges point to a bigger dilemma: Voters and politicians alike repeatedly report that homelessness is one of the most important issues facing California, but it’s hard to address the problem without knowing its full scope.
Sacramento and San Joaquin counties saw big changes. Or did they?
Homelessness doubled in San Joaquin County this year compared to the county’s last count in 2022. And the number of people sleeping outdoors — not in a shelter — increased nearly a whopping 160%. No other California county saw such a massive increase.
But the huge change raised questions.
There could be another factor behind San Joaquin County’s massive increase in homelessness: A major change in the way the county counted.
This year, instead of doing the count itself, San Joaquin County used data firm Applied Survey Research, a company also used by nine other California counties this year.
In a change from last year, the county also assigned volunteers to every census tract in an effort to count all homeless people. And their numbers skyrocketed.
“Knowing how many people are living unsheltered is very disheartening,” said Krista Fiser, chair of the county’s continuum of care, “but most people involved with the county feel confident that it is a significantly more accurate count.”
Activists have raised similar questions in Sacramento County, which saw the state’s biggest drop in homelessness. Overall homelessness fell 29% compared to the county’s last count in 2022, and the number of people sleeping outside dropped 41%.
But Loaves & Fishes, a nonprofit that provides food and other services for homeless communities in Sacramento, says its programs served more people this year than last year. It questions whether the point-in-time count numbers are too good to be true.
“These numbers are incredibly difficult to believe and further highlight the trust issues with local government that our guests have consistently expressed over our many years of service,” the organization said in a June news release.
Like San Joaquin, Sacramento County changed the way it counted.
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