Expert wonders if BART management still less than transparent re: BART's ballooning costs

Image by Malcom K

VTA's own independent auditor found that the BART extension team had "engaged in ‘breach of transparency’ and ‘misleading’ communications to its governing board and public about the project’s cost." Even after promises by VTA to kick the habit of slow-walking adverse information about the project, experts are still finding notable lapses in communication. From Marc Joffe, Cato Institute, in a March 10, 2024 public letter to VTA committee.

Many thanks to the Committee for the steps it has taken to improve project transparency. I especially appreciate the addition of Project Management Oversight Contractor reports to the BART Silicon Valley Phase II web page.

However, I believe there are further opportunities to improve the project’s transparency.

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First, the project web page shows an obsolete ridership estimate of 54,600. The current ridership forecast is 32,900. That estimate is supported by a November 2022 Travel Forecast Results Report which I have attached to this comment letter. It is also consistent with the FTA’s latest project profile. I suggest that the ridership forecast be updated, and the attached file be posted to the website. Further, I suggest that VTA post the Simplified Trips-on-Project Software (STOPS) version 2.5 model, parameters, and inputs so that third parties can validate the ridership forecast.

Second, I note that Paul Maguire quoted a new project cost estimate ($12.754 billion) and revenue service date (May 2037) at the March 7th board meeting. Mr. Maguire mentioned that the new estimates emerged from a meeting with the FTA in mid-January. If that’s the case, the new numbers would have been known prior to the last Oversight Committee meeting on February 8th. This begs the question of why these numbers were not shared with the committee at that time. If VTA staff did, in fact, have this data, the failure to share it represents a continuing reluctance to provide officials and the public with bad news promptly.

Thank you for considering these comments.

Marc Joffe

Walnut Creek, CA

Related:

• Perspective: Who's reviewing BART's (highly questionable) fiscal choices?

• Tanaka on BART debate: Fix procurement failures while pursuing region's transportation vision

• Opinion: New BART schedule a positive stride, but attached to additional expenses/challenges

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