Analysis: California outpaces other states when it comes to violent crime

Noël Hallé: The Race between Hippomenes and Atalanta, c. 1764. Image in Public Domain

The SF Chronicle reports that while the rest of the U.S. saw reduced violent crime rates in 2022, California's increased for a second year—our highest numbers since 2008. Since Prop 47 was passed in '14, serial thieves are now challenging and time-consuming to arrest, and their crimes are dealt with as piddly misdemeanors. Meanwhile, Supe Ellenberg blames law enforcement for being too effective at its job (read: incarcerating criminals).

California’s violent crime rate increased for the second year in a row in 2022, while violence in the United States overall declined. But the state’s property crime increased only modestly and in line with the rest of the country.

These findings come from the FBI’s latest annual release of crime data collected via its Uniform Crime Reporting Program, which collects data from law enforcement agencies across the country.

The most important trend shown by the data is a drop in homicides nationwide. After homicides jumped by nearly a third in 2020 — the single biggest year-over-year increase in more than a century — and rose slightly again in 2021, they dropped in 2022 by just over 6%, an even faster decline than the overall violent crime rate drop of about 1.6%.

California followed the national trends; its homicide rates, which are lower than the broader U.S. rate, went up by 39% from 2019 to 2021, then back down again by 5% in 2022.

While the U.S. saw its overall violent crime rate decline in 2022 alongside the homicide rate, California’s reported violent crime rate has increased over the past two years. That jump stems from a significant spike in aggravated assault, which has risen by 24% since 2019. Robberies too rose slightly in 2022, though they remain lower than any year in the last two decades aside from 2020-21.

California’s overall violent crime rate in 2022 stood at 500 reported crimes per 100,000 people, the highest it’s been since 2008 but still low relative to the highs of the 1980s and 90s.

This article originally appeared in the San Francisco Chronicle. Read the whole thing here.

Related:

• Retired San Diego police chief: Prop 47 “went too far” to coddle criminals without requiring accountability

• Analysis: It's no myth (or secret) that Oakland is more dangerous, crime-ridden than ever

• Eight policy changes to fix California's woes

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