☆ RM4 opposition leader: bond measure’s removal from ballot a victory for common sense coalition
The defeat of RM4 showed that regular people of all political stripes can come together in the Bay Area and defend taxpayers from poorly designed policy measures, says Gus Mattammal, President of 20BillionReasons, the victorious grass-roots group that opposed RM4. {Ed. note: And let's ponder this: just one Bay Area resident found an embarrassing math error that played a huge role in knocking RM4 off the ballot.} In this Opp Now exclusive, Mattammal stresses how important it is for concerned Bay Areans to organize across party lines early and build a strong ground game.
Opportunity Now: What are the major lessons of the defeat of RM4?
Gus Mattammal: It’s so easy to fall into the trap of thinking that regular people can't make a difference in our politics, and that's just not true.
Tom Rubin is just a regular guy with a policy interest who was willing to sit down and dive deep into the details. He found the error BAHFA made on the math, which they got wrong by 50%. They said it cost $670 million, it was actually $911 million per year.
Then 20 Billion Reasons came together and helped put that out there. We’re roughly split between Democrats and Republicans/Libertarians.
Now this thing is off the ballot. So, regular people can make a difference.
ON: Why did BAHFA underestimate opposition to RM4?
GM: I'm a big believer in political balance. I think divided government is an amazing thing, because it forces you to be efficient and focused. If you're not, then the other side can immediately benefit. When you don't have balance, or divided government, what you get is laziness and sloppiness, because the competitive pressure isn't there. When one party is just running everything, what you get is an echo chamber, and paying attention to one type of voice.
I don't think they anticipated that there would be an actual organized opposition. I don't think they anticipated that that opposition wouldn't just be a handful of Republicans and Libertarians.
So, they didn't check their numbers, and they paid the price for that.
ON: Is there a way to set up BAHFA so its board is directly accountable to citizens?
GM: It’s created by statute, so you would need the legislature to do that. Republicans have been essentially zeroed out as a political force. That’s why you wind up with these terrible, hugely expensive, poorly designed policy proposals. MTC is a great example of that right now.
ON: It seems like information is the best way to stop wasteful spending
GM: With propositions that raise taxes, the more people find out, the more they don’t want to vote for them. For RM4, 55% approval seemed like the high watermark. With all the negative press from their math error, BAHFA decided to pull RM4, and focus their efforts on lowering the bar first so they can try to push it through another day.
ON: Prop 5, if it passes, will lower the bar from two-thirds to 55% voter approval for local bond measures.
GM: Yes, the thesis behind Prop 5 is that it's so difficult to raise taxes.
Every time I hear that, it just blows my mind. Californians have the fifth highest tax burden in America. Californians are totally fine raising their own taxes. They've done it many times, without complaint, because Californians are generous.
The state legislature only rewards us by complaining about how hard it is to raise taxes and trying to lower the bar. That just steams me.
ON: It looks like the ballot label won’t inform voters that Prop 5 lowers the threshold from two-thirds.
GM: It’s cynical. They’re relying on lack of education to push an agenda.
In my mind, for the next three months we want to let everybody out there know that Prop 5 is lowering the bar. We want to ask people, how do you feel about lowering the bar to your taxes? If you think that's awesome, then fine. But if you're like, "California is expensive enough as it is," then don't mess with the bar.
ON: What’s next?
GM: There are a lot of big institutional forces that are willing to push objectively bad policy in the service of other interests, and they won't make the same mistake twice. In 2026 they will double, triple check their math. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars will be spent to push a bill that is likely going to be even worse than this one. We’ll need much more of a ground game to defeat the next one.
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