VTA's ho-hum strike undermines need for upcoming transit sales tax
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When Bay Area voters face a transit sales tax measure next year, agencies and transit supporters will warn that failure to pass the tax measure will lead to catastrophic results. Um, no. SHIFT-Bay Area reports.
On March 10, bus and light-rail service throughout the Bay Area’s largest county shut down after Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority transit workers walked out. While the strike has undoubtedly caused inconvenience, it does not appear to have caused massive traffic jams or a major loss of work hours.
The VTA walkout offers a stark contrast to the 2013 BART strike, which triggered major traffic jams on approaches to the Bay Bridge. But a lot has changed since 2013. Many more of us work remotely or on flexible, hybrid work schedules.
Also, transit alternatives have evolved over the last dozen years. While we did have Uber and Lyft in 2013, their usage has grown dramatically in subsequent years, and, in some parts of the Bay Area, they have been joined by Waymo, the driverless ridesharing service.
Another change affecting travel patterns in urban areas like San Jose, San Francisco, and eastern Alameda County has been the rise of bike- and scooter-sharing services. The Bay Wheels service operated by Lyft has over 7000 bikes available for short-term rental in these areas.
Overall, transit usage is down both in terms of absolute number of rides and as a proportion of trips served. According to 2023 data from Google’s Environmental Insights Explorer, transit serves less than one percent of all trips taken in San Jose, behind driving, walking, and biking.
All transit agencies already have enough sales tax and fare revenue to operate a sizable proportion of their existing services. Indeed, if agencies focused their budget cuts on administrative personnel, retiree health benefits, and other expenses not directly related to running buses and trains, service reductions as a proportion of total trips could be quite small.
And, by 2027, when the new sales tax revenue from a ballot measure would become available, transit alternatives will be further developed. For example, driverless rideshare (with no need to tip) should be available in most of the Bay Area, in contrast to the limited areas now served.
While service cuts are almost invariably unpleasant for some of us, evidence from the March 2025 VTA strike suggests that the overall impact on Bay Area mobility will be far from catastrophic.
Read the whole thing here.
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