(Successful) local strikes tend to be contagious
Image from the Charlie Chaplin film Modern Times, 1936.
We revisit a Governing.com analysis of SJ's infamous union deal from two years ago, and wonder if Bay Area gov't strikes—once taboo, recently regaining traction—might fade to the background again post-VTA strike.
[Editor's note: The following article was published in 2023.]
Most city workers in San Jose just scored themselves a raise of nearly 15 percent. They got it in an old-fashioned way — by threatening to strike. …
Last Tuesday, the council voted to approve two contracts that will increase salaries by 14.5 percent over three years, assuming budget targets are met in the third year. …
Coming just a week after a one-day strike in Los Angeles, these California actions may signal the start of a new era. “Strikes — well, successful ones — tend to be contagious,” says Jake Rosenfeld, a sociologist at Washington University who studies union activity. “That means the likelihood that any unionized workplace experiences a labor dispute is going to be higher.” …
Government strikes are illegal in 39 states and there are a bunch of hoops — arbitration, mediation, fact-finding — that are mandated prior to strikes even in some states where strikes are legal.
But the public sector is much more heavily unionized than the private sector. …
“[Also, labor has] incentives to want more, because of inflation, and a little more leverage, since it’s a seller’s market for labor,” says Joseph Slater, a University of Toledo law professor. “Labor shortages make strikes more credible because it’s harder to replace strikers.”
Reagan Embodied a Backlash
Teacher strikes have been fairly common in recent years … But strikes among general government employees have been rare for decades.
There were plenty of strikes back in the 1960s and 1970s. … [because] [f]or one thing, government unions gained greater legal protection in many states in the 1960s. Unions in general were stronger back then, with thousands of strikes called by those representing private-sector workers in the ’60s and ‘70s. In addition, successful mass movements petitioning for rights for women and African Americans helped inform the rebellious ferment of the time.
But things began to change by the late 1970s. City employees took a big hit financially, including layoffs, as New York City sought to avert bankruptcy in 1978. That same year, California voters approved Proposition 13, a massive property tax cut that weakened local finances and prompted anti-tax revolts elsewhere. …
And then there was PATCO. The Professional Air Traffic Controllers Organization called a strike in 1981, shortly after Ronald Reagan entered the White House. Reagan fired 11,000 air traffic controllers, vividly demonstrating that workers who struck ran the risk of losing their jobs. …
Hibernation Is Over
… So, what’s changed now? Some of it’s just economics. Many public-sector employees are unhappy both about pay and their working conditions. …
Then there’s the post-pandemic mood. Strikes and increased union activity in general in the private sector make it easier for government employees to imagine going out on the line — especially when current vacancies can’t be filled, let alone lots of replacements found. Polling suggests that public opinion about labor unions is the most favorable it’s been since the mid-1960s. “Biden is one of the strongest labor advocates that we’ve seen in decades as president,” says Walker, the political scientist.
All that being said, government strikes may well grow more frequent over the next couple of years, but they won’t become common. They’re illegal in too many places and can be painful essentially anywhere.
“The ability of this to spread is probably going to be concentrated in our strongest union-friendly places, like California or New York,” Walker says.
Read the whole thing here.
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