Housing First not only ineffectual but deadly: LA case study

Advocates that favor the Housing First approach to the homelessness epidemic, arguing for its efficacy, fail to dig into the data of its sometimes fatal consequences. On his Substack blog, Michael Shellenberger points to the evidence in an LA versus NYC comparison, asserting that Housing First results in three times more homeless deaths than with Shelter First. To receive daily updates of new Opp Now stories, click here.

USA Today yesterday published an analysis which found that three times more homeless people died in Los Angeles than in New York City between mid-2020 and 2021, despite the fact that there were 14,237 fewer homeless in LA than NYC.

USA Today, May 29, 2022, drawing on city mortality records

“Los Angeles saw 1,988 homeless people die from April 2020 to the end of March 2021,” notes USA Today. “In a similar period – July 2020 to the end of June 2021 – 640 people died in New York, about a third of what L.A. saw.”

The reason for the difference is obvious: New York has built sufficient shelter for its homeless population whereas L.A., following “Housing First” dogma, has not. Instead, L.A. has, like San Francisco under Newsom’s leadership, diverted money from building shelters to building an inadequate supply of very expensive housing.

And by allowing open drug scenes — “homeless encampments” — to grow, by not enforcing laws against illegal public camping, Newsom and other progressive leaders are not only creating urban disorder, they are inadvertently killing homeless people.

Of the 1,988 homeless deaths in Los Angeles between April 2020 and March 2021, 715 were drug-related, 104 were from homicides, and 150 were from traffic injuries. Deaths from drugs, homicide, and traffic increased 78%, 49%, and 33%, respectively, from the prior year.

Of the 640 homeless deaths in New York over a similar period, 237 were drug-related, 22 were from homicides, and just six from traffic injuries. Deaths from drugs increased 81%, but deaths from homicides and accidents did not increase significantly.

This article originally appeared in Substack. Read the whole thing here.

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