Downtown SJ BART extension to over-expend/underperform, says expert

Policy analyst Marc Joffe takes to the California Globe to examine the SF Bay Area Rapid Transit’s current extension project (which will connect tracks to downtown SJ). While costing a whopping $9.4 billion, the BART endeavor is far from needed in a highly remote post-Covid Bay Area, and is expected only to “post modest ridership numbers.”

Recent action at the state and federal level may bode ill for three costly projects being pursued by San Francisco Bay Area transit agencies. In the face of declining population and historically low transit ridership, the agencies are trying to corral $45 billion of both local tax revenues and state and federal funds to launch the projects. A better approach would be to shelve them.

Furthest along of the three projects is the $9.4 billion, four-station extension of the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system to and through Downtown San Jose. Although the six miles of additional track will carry BART trains, the extension is being built by a separate agency, the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA). A previous VTA-built extension, from Alameda Country to north San Jose, was delivered four years late. The two new stations added by this $2.3 billion, ten-mile project currently serve less than 2000 exiting passengers each day.

The follow-up project, expected to provide service in 2034, is already impacting the neighborhood despite not having federal funding in place:  VTA recently voted to tear down a building housing eight residential units and three buildings to eventually build passenger egress and ventilation facilities….

These three projects would likely post modest ridership numbers once completed, given the shift away from commuting and toward remote work that is especially pronounced in the tech-heavy Bay Area. And, even before the pandemic, population and transit ridership in the region had stopped growing due to the area’s high cost of living, as well as crime and cleanliness issues on transit systems.

Perhaps for these reasons, state and federal authorities are recognizing that bloated Bay Area transit projects are not the best use of scarce taxpayer funds. California, for example, has swung from a $100 billion surplus to a $22.5 billion projected deficit within the space of just one fiscal year and is looking for savings.

This article originally appeared in the California Globe. Read the whole thing here.

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