Can CA sustain itself on green energy in our lifetime?

New Zealand’s former Minister of Energy Barry Brill debunks Newsom’s idea that CA’s transition to renewable energy sources will be quick—and is possible before 2070. Assuming the Golden State can make a “green” switch soon, even the International Energy Agency (IEA) says it’s unlikely for global hydrocarbon dependency to stray below 84%. This analysis first appeared in Watts Up With That?

C. ENERGY TRANSITIONS ARE SLOW

27. Transition may take 80 years: Cheap and plentiful primary energy has utterly transformed living standards over the past 200 years. Since the industrial revolution, the major global energy transitions—from wood, to coal, to oil—have each taken around 80 years. The current move to natural gas[xi] will also take a long time, probably until 2070 or thereabouts.

Throughout history, the priorities of energy consumers (i.e. voters) have always been unmistakable. First, they want firm assurance of energy supply at all times and, secondly, the supply must be affordable – the cheaper the better.  Major wars have been fought to maintain secure and affordable supply of energy. While collateral considerations such as mine safety and environmental pollution are always relevant, they are an order of magnitude less salient.

28. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate; Global civilization still depends on hydrocarbons (oil, gas and coal) for 84% of all its energy requirements, which is only about 2% less than the level of dependence in the year 1990. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects this percentage will be even greater in 2040 than it was in 2021[xii].

The IEA is funded by all OECD countries to apply the expensive resources needed to make rational and explicable forecasts of future global energy needs. Despite being the soul of diplomacy, the IEA clearly disbelieves the high-sounding political rhetoric around NZ50. No responsible policymaker can claim to have better objective forecasts than those supplied by the IEA.

This article originally appeared in Watts Up With That? Read the whole thing here.

Follow Opportunity Now on Twitter @svopportunity

Image by Wikimedia Commons