Analysis: Post-COVID transit ridership can’t justify more HSR

Extend light rail (arguably the nation's worst-performing mass transit system) to Eastridge? Demolish downtown SJ yet again for a dubious BART extension? And get ready for HSR to rip up our neighborhoods? As Michael Arnold suggests in Discourse Magazine, the ridership numbers don't get close to justifying the monumental costs. Transit hasn't even returned to pre-COVID numbers—and maybe never will. To receive daily updates of new Opp Now stories, click here.

Between July and September 2021, 13 percent of jobs in U.S. private sector businesses involved teleworking full time and 22 percent involved teleworking at least some of the time. One-third (33 percent) of establishments increased telework for some or all employees during the COVID-19 pandemic…

Impacts on Transit Ridership

Transit ridership data are published monthly by the Federal Transit Administration for every transit operator in the country by “mode” or type of service. The evidence is overwhelming that transit agencies are in a world of hurt, affected first by lockdowns and fears of occupying a public vehicle, but now by remote work.

Figure 3, in two parts, plots national transit ridership (i.e., one-way boardings) by major mode. Local transit operators may claim ridership is returning, but the data tell a different story. Yes, ridership has rebounded from the dramatic declines in spring 2020, when lockdowns reduced ridership by 80%. However, more than two years later, transit ridership is still down almost 40%. Commuter rail ridership is down 50%, carrying half the riders it did in 2019. And these numbers are not minor: In April, total transit boardings were 313 million below 2019 levels.

This article originally appeared in Discourse Magazine. Read the whole thing here.

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Image by Alexander Isreb