Analysis: Criminal leniency risks public safety

Frequently, those pushing for early prisoner release in the SCC cite dangers of “unnecessary incarceration.” However, says Rafael A. Mangual in Newsweek, most incarcerated individuals committed serious crimes (e.g., murder or armed burglary) to land them in jail — and 83% go on to commit more after being released. Rather than merely seeking to empty local prisons, Mangual suggests a more prudent approach to preserving public safety.

The reality is that though there is certainly room for decarceration at the margins, imprisonment is a sanction generally reserved for serious, higher-rate offenders who have proven themselves highly likely to reoffend if/when released. Historically, only about 40 percent of those convicted of state-level felonies are sent to prison. In terms of who is in prison, just six very serious offense categories accounted for nearly 64 percent of state prisoners in 2018: murder (14.3 percent); rape/sexual assault (13.1 percent); robbery (12.8 percent); aggravated/simple assault (10.8 percent); burglary (9.1 percent); and weapons offenses (3.7 percent). On the other hand, drug offenders, who garner a lot of attention from decarceration advocates, constituted just over 14 percent of state prisoners in 2018—and state prisoners accounted for 88 percent of the nation's total prison population. Not only are drug offenders a small portion of the overall prison population, but they don't serve very much time. Nearly half (45 percent) are out in less than a year; one in five are out in less than six months. Still, 15 percent of the prison population isn't exactly small potatoes; but the mere fact that someone is serving time primarily (i.e., not necessarily exclusively) for a drug offense does not mean he/she can be accurately categorized as "non-violent" and released without endangering the public….

Overall, a whopping 83 percent of released state prisoners are rearrested for at least one crime after they're released from prison, highlighting the importance of incapacitation—one of the four main penological ends served by incarceration. The other three are rehabilitation, deterrence and retribution. The shootings, homicides and other violent crimes plaguing many of America's neighborhoods are driven significantly by repeat offenders who have already had (and blown) many "second chances." In Chicago, the average homicide or shooting suspect had (in 2015 and 2016) an average of 12 prior arrests. Another BJS study found that, over a 12-year period, 36 percent of those convicted of violent felonies in large urban counties were on probation, parole or awaiting trial at the time of their arrests.

A big chunk of America's criminal justice story is the frustrating tale of revolving courthouse doors. Chronic offenders, often with serious criminal histories, are repeatedly allowed back into their communities. All too often, that decision results in a loss of life—like the one stolen from Brittany Hill, who, according to prosecutors, was killed by two men, one of whom was out on parole despite having nine felony convictions, including second-degree murder. That case was similar to a one a few years earlier, in which a 56-year-old parolee was charged with a stabbing despite nine felony convictions and "at least 60 arrests," according to the Chicago Tribune. That case, too, was reminiscent of another in which a 38-year-old parolee was charged with pointing a gun at Chicago police officers before being shot—he too had nine prior felony convictions, according to the Tribune. And then there was the 2014 arrest of 51-year-old George Patterson by Chicago police for a murder committed while he was out on parole, despite having...you guessed it—nine prior felony convictions, according to CBS Chicago. And that's just Chicago over the last few years.

To be sure, there are certainly some people in prison who don't belong there. Mr. Levin has identified some. But there are also a lot of people on the street who belong in prison.

This article originally appeared in Newsweek. Read the whole thing here.

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